Armalo Research
Armalo Predict · Public Investment Disclosure
Armalo Predict is the public investment record of Armalo Research. The portfolio takes selective, short-duration, event-driven positions in public prediction markets, each admitted under a written quality standard and disclosed here at a high level: the investment, the direction, the entry reference, and a concise statement of rationale. Position sizes and execution detail are withheld by design.
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| Theme | Current | In formation | Watchlist | Closed | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomic data | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Corporate earnings events | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Digital assets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Monetary policy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
02
All entries in the record, in publication order. Entry references are public market prices in cents. Positions in formation are pending confirmation and are not represented as held.
| Investment | Direction | Entry reference | Classification | Status | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP growth above 3.0% (Q3)Kalshi · KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.0 | YES | 64.63¢ | Core | Current | Thu, Oct 29, 2026 |
| Ethereum above $2,360 on FridayKalshi · KXETHD-26OCT3017-T2359.99 | YES | 45.56¢ | Tactical | Current | Fri, Oct 30, 2026 |
| Microsoft says “Gaming” on its earnings callKalshi · KXEARNINGSMENTIONMSFT-26OCT28-GAMI | YES | 41¢ | In formation | In formationPending confirmation | Wed, Oct 28, 2026 |
| Alphabet says “YouTube Shorts” on its earnings callKalshi · KXEARNINGSMENTIONGOOGL-26OCT29-YOUT | YES | 24¢ | In formation | In formationPending confirmation | Wed, Oct 28, 2026 |
| US GDP growth above 3.5% (Q3)Kalshi · KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.5 | YES | 29¢ | Research | Research watchlist | Thu, Oct 29, 2026 |
| October CPI above 0.2% month over monthKalshi · KXCPI-26OCT-T0.2 | YES | 62¢ | Research | Research watchlist | Tue, Nov 10, 2026 |
| October CPI above 0.3% month over monthKalshi · KXCPI-26OCT-T0.3 | YES | 17¢ | Research | Research watchlist | Tue, Nov 10, 2026 |
| Fed surprise rate hike at the October meetingKalshi · KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25 | YES | 6.39¢exit 4¢ | Closed | Closed | Wed, Oct 28, 2026 |
| US GDP growth above 4.0% (Q3)Kalshi · KXGDP-26OCT30-T4.0 | YES | 8.52¢exit 6¢ | Closed | Closed | Thu, Oct 29, 2026 |
| October CPI above 0.4% month over monthKalshi · KXCPI-26OCT-T0.4 | YES | 4.27¢exit 2¢ | Closed | Closed | Tue, Nov 10, 2026 |
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A high-level summary and one statement of rationale for each entry. The research process behind a position is not disclosed.
Current
Core
Published Oct 27, 2026 · Settles Thu, Oct 29, 2026
YES · entry 64.63¢
Kalshi · KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.0
A position on third quarter United States growth, held into the advance estimate published Thursday, October 29.
Official nowcasting and consensus estimates for the quarter sit above the 3.0 strike, supporting a measured growth position at the entry reference shown.
Current
Tactical
Published Oct 27, 2026 · Settles Fri, Oct 30, 2026
YES · entry 45.56¢
Kalshi · KXETHD-26OCT3017-T2359.99
A short-dated digital asset position, held into the weekly settlement on Friday, October 30.
Ethereum has traded around the 2,360 level through the week. The position was entered below even money and requires the market to hold its ground into settlement.
Intended positions whose execution is pending confirmation. They are disclosed for completeness and are not represented as held until confirmation is recorded.
In formation · Pending confirmation
In formation
Published Oct 28, 2026 · Settles Wed, Oct 28, 2026
YES · reference 41¢ · pending confirmation
Kalshi · KXEARNINGSMENTIONMSFT-26OCT28-GAMI
An intended position on Microsoft's earnings call on Wednesday, October 28. The position settles on whether gaming is referenced during the call.
Gaming is a reported business segment for Microsoft, and segment performance is a standard subject of earnings commentary and disclosure.
In formation · Pending confirmation
In formation
Published Oct 28, 2026 · Settles Wed, Oct 28, 2026
YES · reference 24¢ · pending confirmation
Kalshi · KXEARNINGSMENTIONGOOGL-26OCT29-YOUT
An intended position on Alphabet's earnings call on Wednesday, October 28. The position settles on whether YouTube Shorts is referenced during the call.
YouTube Shorts is a featured product line in Alphabet's public reporting and a recurring subject of management commentary.
A watchlist line is not a position. Watchlist entries are research subjects under review; an entry becomes a disclosed position only when it is executed and recorded as current.
Research watchlist
Research
Published Oct 28, 2026 · Settles Thu, Oct 29, 2026
YES · reference 29¢
Kalshi · KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.5
The same October 29 advance estimate as the current growth position, one strike higher. Research watchlist only; this is not a position.
Published estimates cluster near this strike. The growth view is already carried at the 3.0 strike, and an addition here would require a more favorable entry reference.
Research watchlist
Research
Published Oct 28, 2026 · Settles Tue, Nov 10, 2026
YES · reference 62¢
Kalshi · KXCPI-26OCT-T0.2
October consumer price data, published November 10. Research watchlist only; this is not a position.
Public inflation nowcasts for October sit modestly above the 0.2 strike. At the reference shown, the entry does not yet meet the standard for a position.
Research watchlist
Research
Published Oct 28, 2026 · Settles Tue, Nov 10, 2026
YES · reference 17¢
Kalshi · KXCPI-26OCT-T0.3
The October inflation strike above the current nowcast range, published November 10. Research watchlist only; this is not a position.
Priced at the reference shown as a tail outcome. Nowcast revisions into the release will determine whether it is reconsidered.
Closed positions remain in the record permanently, including positions closed at a loss. References shown are the public entry and exit prices, in cents.
Closed
Closed
Published Oct 27, 2026 · Settles Wed, Oct 28, 2026
YES · entry 6.39¢ · exit 4¢
Kalshi · KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25
A tail position on a surprise rate increase at the October FOMC meeting, opened with the first disclosed book.
No durable basis supported the position. It is retained in this record as a risk review exit.
Exited the day it was opened under a tightened quality gate, at 4 cents against a 6.39 cent entry, a realized loss. Positions of this class are no longer carried.
Closed
Closed
Published Oct 27, 2026 · Settles Thu, Oct 29, 2026
YES · entry 8.52¢ · exit 6¢
Kalshi · KXGDP-26OCT30-T4.0
The far strike on the same growth release as the current 3.0 position, opened with the first disclosed book.
Published estimates never approached this strike. The growth view is carried at the 3.0 strike, which remains open.
Exited the day it was opened under a tightened quality gate, at 6 cents against an 8.52 cent entry, a realized loss.
Closed
Closed
Published Oct 27, 2026 · Settles Tue, Nov 10, 2026
YES · entry 4.27¢ · exit 2¢
Kalshi · KXCPI-26OCT-T0.4
The far strike on the October inflation release, opened with the first disclosed book.
A print at this level would require a shock that current data does not indicate.
Exited the day it was opened under a tightened quality gate, at 2 cents against a 4.27 cent entry, a realized loss.
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01 · Selectivity
The portfolio holds few positions at any time. Each is admitted against a written standard, and most markets reviewed are declined.
02 · Defined horizon
Every position has a known settlement date at entry, typically days to weeks. There are no open-ended holdings.
03 · Evidence before entry
A position requires a documented basis in public data or a recurring, observable pattern. An attractive price alone is never a sufficient basis.
04 · Disciplined exits
Positions are exited when the basis no longer clears the standard, including at a loss. Exits are recorded in this disclosure with the same prominence as entries.
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1. Entry reference: the public market price of the position side at entry, in cents, from the venue's public feed. Exit references are recorded the same way.
2. Venue: all positions in this disclosure are event contracts listed on Kalshi. Market references are the venue's public tickers.
Published for transparency, not as investment advice.
Positions shown are Armalo's own, held or intended at publication time. Armalo does not manage outside capital, and no performance figures are presented or implied.
Prediction markets can settle at zero. Some positions in this record will lose.
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